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We know everything

It is a global pandemic like never before. Never in the history of the world have so many areas been struck by emergency at the same time. That means, all failover plans, BCP plans, inter country BCP plans have come to nought.

Yes, the companies that can work virtually are working, but the ones that cannot are struggling (so, our assessment is partial at best to begin with).

The disease is one which has not been fully comprehended - there are rebound cases (people cured and sent back and coming back with an infection). The level of infection it can cause is severe - and that is an understatement. There is no vaccine. (another unknown)

A couple of countries have come to conquering it almost completely, but they too have got it, after superhuman levels to manageable levels. And it is still unclear. (we have no experience)

In the middle of all this, if I claim to see the future, who am I? Many analyses have been published - and like all analyst reports, they exude a certain sense of confidence in what is going to unravel in future.

One way of looking at it is - everybody has predicted everything. There is fear of a recession or a depression, a non V shaped recovery, work from home will be the new normal, industries will be reshaped, there will be millions unemployed. All of these are first order consequences. Nothing wrong. But can we say for certain? No we cant. This is the start of a war. And at the start everybody is wildly optimistic. Am I saying be pessimistic? No.

Also we are not the frontline. The frontline is the doctors, the medical corps, so to say. Then it is the scientists who are trying to make a vaccine. Then there is a law enforcement and government and others. There are so many layers who are fighting a battle - I think people like us who are at best an interested audience should be a little less cocky and instead support those at the frontlines.

All I am saying is that right now, it is ok to accept that we dont know and while one may have contintency plans for multiple scenarios, VUCA (as much as I hated this term this is the real thing) has its own way of appearing. So, while it is good to have plans, I think we are being overly confident in our assessment of what is going to unfold.

This is a black swan event. To claim to be on top of it fully today is foolhardly.

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