Skip to main content

We know everything

It is a global pandemic like never before. Never in the history of the world have so many areas been struck by emergency at the same time. That means, all failover plans, BCP plans, inter country BCP plans have come to nought.

Yes, the companies that can work virtually are working, but the ones that cannot are struggling (so, our assessment is partial at best to begin with).

The disease is one which has not been fully comprehended - there are rebound cases (people cured and sent back and coming back with an infection). The level of infection it can cause is severe - and that is an understatement. There is no vaccine. (another unknown)

A couple of countries have come to conquering it almost completely, but they too have got it, after superhuman levels to manageable levels. And it is still unclear. (we have no experience)

In the middle of all this, if I claim to see the future, who am I? Many analyses have been published - and like all analyst reports, they exude a certain sense of confidence in what is going to unravel in future.

One way of looking at it is - everybody has predicted everything. There is fear of a recession or a depression, a non V shaped recovery, work from home will be the new normal, industries will be reshaped, there will be millions unemployed. All of these are first order consequences. Nothing wrong. But can we say for certain? No we cant. This is the start of a war. And at the start everybody is wildly optimistic. Am I saying be pessimistic? No.

Also we are not the frontline. The frontline is the doctors, the medical corps, so to say. Then it is the scientists who are trying to make a vaccine. Then there is a law enforcement and government and others. There are so many layers who are fighting a battle - I think people like us who are at best an interested audience should be a little less cocky and instead support those at the frontlines.

All I am saying is that right now, it is ok to accept that we dont know and while one may have contintency plans for multiple scenarios, VUCA (as much as I hated this term this is the real thing) has its own way of appearing. So, while it is good to have plans, I think we are being overly confident in our assessment of what is going to unfold.

This is a black swan event. To claim to be on top of it fully today is foolhardly.
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Be Civil. Make nice!

Popular posts from this blog

The man who saved Pumpelsdrop

This was a story we had in college if I am not mistaken. Perhaps it was in school, but a delightful story it was. The story goes somewhat like this ( reproduced from here ), but the college version we had was slightly different from this.  I t was a dull, gloomy and a depressing morning in a town named Pumpelsdrop in northern England. The Great Depression had brought all the businesses to a standstill. The bored automobile dealer was spending time alone, as usual. But, this seems to be an unusual morning as an odd entity (customer) appeared on the horizon. A man in a bright suit walks up to the dealer and says, "I need to buy a Rolls Royce Phantom II. We have a business conference coming up and I need to impress my customers". Then proceeds to pay 10% of the deal with a single check for 2000 pounds. The rest he says will pay when he takes the delivery.   The auto dealer was stunned. He was delighted to hear that someone is holding a business conference of some kind and ...
Post a Comment
Read more

The Most Powerful Idea in the World

The above titled book by William Rosen (and I am still reading it) has set me thinking. As it goes through the industrial revolution (rather, the beginning of it) - it explores as to why the industrial revolution happened when it happened. Rather, how a lot of factors came to play in making it happen. For that alone this book is worth a read. It is worth reading how a 'dotcom' kind of ecosystem existed in England with the combination of tinkerers, rich patrons, correspondence and of course, the right kind of institutions. When one studies engineering, or even science, what we hear are the rock star stories. For instance, we know that Archimedes had a 'Eureka' moment. Likewise, in this book, I realized how a 'Eureka' moment helped James Watt resolve the problematic steam engine into a workable design. While it is very romantic to believe that discoveries happen accidentally, the fact remains that somebody like a James Watt (or others) slogged through many man...
Post a Comment
Read more

Narendra Modi, Presentation Skills

This is the latest speech by Narendra Modi which was delivered yesterday at the India Today Conclave. Much analysis has been carried out on this speech, but here is a different perspective. I have written about Presentation skills - and to me this is a video that touches upon almost all aspects of presentation skills. For someone who wants to learn public speaking, presentation skills this speech is a great example. It is well worth your time, if you want to see presentation skills in action (and the bonus of a great speech). The speech is largely in Hindi, though there are parts in English as well.  Mr. Modi uses a video at the start (which is missing here) - so the speech uses other media as well - surprising the audience - since politicians arent generally given to videos. That initial video has made the audience look forward to more. The speech is extempore - which can only happen when one knows the subject thoroughly. I personally don't know how much Mr. Modi practices...
1 comment
Read more